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Analysis: Biden needs a breakthrough with Iran and North Korea




So far the Biden administration has failed to convince two-thirds of what was previously known as “the axis of evil“at the negotiating table. The White House offered talks with Iran driven by the European Union, but Tehran said the time is not” ripe. “Now it has emerged that North Korea has rejected several US attempts. to contact.
This demonstrates how difficult it will be for President Joe Biden to initiate aggressive diplomacy to end the nuclear threat of every American adversary. Iran i North Korea it may be playing very hard to get, but pushing a tough initial negotiation could raise the price of dialogue higher than Biden can afford politically.

Iran seems to want pre-meeting guarantees that the sanctions imposed by Donald Trump will be lifted. The US says Iran must first return to compliance with the agreement from which the former president came out. The EU talks were an attempt to blur those hard lines. But other pressures don’t help: Iran’s elections in June could produce a hard line that opposes talking at all. And Iran may seek assurances that a future Republican president would not just sweep the deal, something Biden cannot assure.

North Korean pull Kim Jong Un he is already disappointed that his fellow summits with Trump will not produce a flood of American investment. The American goal of denuclearization will probably always be a Pyongyang principle. And, unlike his predecessor, Biden has no desire to fly halfway around the world to take a picture with one of the worst despots in the world. Kim could also be waiting for him to report on Biden’s North Korean policy review.

If there are no breakthroughs by surprise, inertia is likely to appear in two challenging foreign policy issues that most U.S. presidents try and fail to resolve. Sometimes setting aside insoluble crises is a goal worthy of diplomacy. But Biden wakes up every morning knowing that Iran may have moved in a few months after the time of the “rupture,” when it has enough uranium enriched for a bomb. And the expansion of Kim’s nuclear and missile arsenal is a growing threat to the U.S. homeland.